Independent equity research built around expected value. Rather than projecting cash flows or comparing multiples, each thesis identifies the specific decisions that will determine a stock's price, assigns sourced probabilities to each outcome, and calculates a weighted expected value against the current price.
The process
01
Identify the key decisions
The events that will actually move the price.
02
Source a prior
Prediction markets, options, or base rates. No guessing.
03
Build the outcome tree
Each node combination gets a price target. Probabilities sum to 100%.
04
Calculate expected value
Weighted EV above current price is the buy case.