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Probability investing: an epistemology for markets. Frameworks, valuation, and calibration.

Philosophy 12 min read

Aseity Investing vs. Value, Momentum, and Consensus

Value borrows its warrant from a point estimate. Momentum borrows it from the crowd. Consensus borrows it from the room. Contrarianism borrows it from the crowd and adds a minus sign. Aseity investing refuses to borrow at all.

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Valuation 5 min read

Key Financial Ratios for Analyzing Tech Stocks

Growth, gross margin, Rule of 40, FCF, NRR, multiples, ROIC. The standard tech-stock ratios reframed as probability investing: not scores to grade, but evidence that moves the odds on a thesis.

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