Probability-weighted outcome analysis for stocks and ETFs.
Scenarios
Expected value
Weighted EV
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Current Price
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Implied Upside
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Verdict
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Outcome breakdown
Risk / Reward Profile
Upside and downside distance from current price, independent of probabilities. Required win rate is derived from the distance ratio alone.
Max upside
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Max downside
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Required win rate
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Chart
Download and include in your article.
Sensitivity
Drag a probability — others scale proportionally. The scenario that moves EV most is the key node.
How to use
01
Enter the stock or ETF and the current price.
02
Add 2–5 scenarios with a name, probability, and price target. Must sum to 100%.
03
Source probabilities from prediction markets, options data, or base rates.
04
Calculate, download the chart, and copy the shareable link.